Browsing by Author "Mishra, Pabitra Kumar"

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COVID-19 pandemic and stock market reaction: empirical insights from 15 Asian countries
(Routledge, 2021-05-31T00:00:00) Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Mishra, Santosh Kumar
Since 2020, the world has been passing through a difficult time due to the outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic. This novel public health emergency has created both demand- and supply-side shocks affecting both real and financial sectors of economies globally. One of the noteworthy immediate consequences of it was sudden nosedive of stock markets across countries in the globe. In this pre-text, this study examined the stock market behaviour in 15 selected Asian markets amid the pandemic. The results infer about the surge in market return volatilities amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus which was primarily triggered through the impaired investors� sentiments due to the announcement effects. During this period, the stock market performances in selected Asian countries have been observed to be influenced by the reporting of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases, stock index returns, market volatility, oil prices, inflation rate, and interest rates. � 2021 Denfar Transnational Development INC.
DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STUDY OF SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES
(Central University of Punjab, 2018) KAUR, HARPREET; Mishra, Pabitra Kumar
Asia is a developing and fastest growing region of the world. In 1960s, Asia made a sound recovery known as ‘Asian Miracle’. Its sound recovery during global financial crisis has changed its traditional picture among the advanced regions like North America and Europe. It is highly unequal region in the world in terms of economic growth substantiated by the fact that developing Asia covers only its three sub-regions namely East Asia, South-East Asia, and South Asia out of five total regions. Therefore, the rising influence of Asia in global economy and among advanced nations along with rising inequality raises the question that what are the important factors driving rapid economic growth of Asian economies and if these factors lead to their growth differences? Is there any possibility of equitable growth of Asian economies in the long-run? If yes then what could be the contributing factors?. In regard with this research problem there are few studies available related to determinants of economic growth of Asia. In line with these research questions and research gap, this study works with the objectives to study the trend and pattern of economic growth of Asian economies; to investigate the level of income disparity across the Asian economies; to look for convergence possibility across Asian economies; to explore the drivers of economic growth of Asian economies; to suggest for appropriate policy options rapid and equitable growth of Asian economies. This study is an empirical in nature covering the time period from 1975 to 2015 and follows a macroeconomic approach. The twelve have been selected purposively out of total 50 Asian economies on the basis of income classification by World Bank, 2015. The methodology used in this study is specified as per objectives. For the first objective, time series plots has been prepared for variables of economic growth and trend pattern are observed for selected countries. For second objective, income disparity has been observed through maximum to minimum ratio, measure of dispersion, Gini index, and Theil index. For third objective, convergence possibililty across Asian economies is predicted through βconvergence and σ-convergence. For fourth objective, the inverted-U shaped Kuznets curve is estimated to investigate the relationship between growth of per capita GDP and income inequality of Asian economies. For objective fifth, the dynamic panel unit root test is conducted to see the stationary properties of the variables under consideration. Then the ARDL model is adopted to examine the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables possibly explaining the economic growth of Asian economies. The findings of this study imply that all Asian economies do not reveal an increasing trend of growth over the period. There is a wide disparity among the economic performance of countries from different income groups in respect of selected economic indicators. Income disparities between Asian countries are narrowing down over the period. There is an evidence of catch-up effect and convergence possibility across Asian economies. Economic growth influences income inequality only in case of Japan, South Korea, China, Iran, Thailand, Turkey, India, and Nepal while growth does not influence inequality in case of Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Philippines. The gross capital formation, share of working age population, trade openness, agriculture productivity, energy use, and gross primary school enrolment rate are positively related to economic growth while inflation, domestic credit to private sector, childhood mortality and government consumption expenditure are negatively related to economic growth. Therefore, this study suggests that policy makers should increase the gross capital formation, agricultural productivity, energy use, gross primary school enrolment rate, to efficiently utilize the rising share of working age population, to increase trade openness by encouraging exports and imports. On the other hand, inflation, government consumption expenditure, domestic credit to private sector should be controlled as these are significantly negatively affects economic growth.
Empirics of Tourism-Led Growth in India, 1995 to 2016
(ASERS, 2018) Rout, H.B.; Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Pradhan, B.B.
In the globalized world, the travel and tourism have been considered crucial for achieving inclusive growth, especially in less developed economies. It has been increasingly recognised as a good contributor to national income and employment. So it can be used an instrument for achieving a higher rate of economic growth of a country in the long-run. In this line of argument, this paper examined the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the context of Indian States/UTs in a panel data framework. The empirical findings support the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the long-run and growth-led tourism hypothesis in the short-run. Thus, the policy choice is to make the tourism instrumental, through its promotional strategies, for the inclusive and sustainable development of India.
Insurance Development and Macroeconomic Growth: Analysis of Selected Asian Countries
(Central University of Punjab, 2019) Mir, Javaid Ahamd; Mishra, Pabitra Kumar
Economic growth and its sustainability has long been the focus of debate for both academic researchers and policy makers. A large number of attempts have been made to extensively list the factors that may have an impact on economic growth and the role of insurance as the factor of growth also got recognition. Insurance sector plays an important in augmenting economic growth by managing the risk involved in the investment decisions. Insurance companies mobilise savings from surplus spending units to the deficit spending units and thus, help in financing the investment in the real sector. Insurance sector also contribute to the economic growth by promoting financial stability, facilitating trade and commerce, mobilizing savings, allowing risks to be managed more efficiently, encouraging loss mitigation; and by fostering a more efficient allocation of capital. Insurance services enhance marginal productivity of capital, technological innovation and savings rate in the economy. With such significance of insurance sector in the economic growth of a country, a number of studies have been undertaken to find the causal relationship between them. However, there is no consensus among the existing studies about the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth. In this backdrop, the present study is an attempt to analyse the relationship between insurance development and macroeconomic growth in the context of 14 Asian countries in the multivariate neo-classical framework with specific research objectives like to evaluate the trend and progress of the insurance sector development in the selected Asian economies; to explore the level of disparity in the insurance sector development across selected Asian economies; to investigate the relationship between the development of life insurance sector and economic growth in the selected Asian economies; to investigate the relationship between the development of non-life insurance sector and economic growth in the selected Asian economies; to investigate the relationship between the development of insurance sector as a whole and economic growth in the selected Asian economies. ix The methodology used in this study is specified as per objectives. For the first objective, time series plots have been prepared for variables of insurance sector development and trend pattern are observed for the selected countries. For second objective, the level of disparities in the insurance sector development across the selected Asian countries is observed through the time series plots of insurance penetration and insurance density. Furthermore, the concept of Gini coefficient is used as a statistical measure of the inequality. In the presence of between-country insurance inequality, it is often asked whether such inequality would eventually converge. This issue with respect to the insurance sector development across high-income, upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries is addressed by employing the concepts of absolute β-convergence and σ-convergence tests. For objective third, fourth and fifth, the study employs the ARDL model to check the relationship between life insurance sector and economic growth, non-life insurance sector and economic growth and total insurance sector and economic growth in the selected countries. The findings of the study with respect to the first objective reveal that the life insurance sector in most of the selected Asian countries has shown much progress during the period from 1985 to 2015. However, the development in the non-life insurance sector is not satisfactory during that period. With respect to the objective second, the study reveals that the existence of wide disparity in the insurance sector development in the selected Asian countries during the period from 1985 to 2015. Between-country inequality is found in the life insurance sector development, non-life insurance sector development and also in the development of insurance sector as a whole. Further, the convergence possibility of insurance sector development between the selected Asian countries is also predicted in the findings. The findings of the study with respect to objective third, fourth and fifth reveal the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between insurance sector development (life insurance, non-life insurance and insurance sector as whole) and economic growth for the selected Asian countries. However, there is feedback/bidirectional causal relationship between life insurance sector and economic growth and also between insurance sector as a whole and economic growth in the selected Asian countries. In the case of non-life insurance and economic growth relationship, x the findings from the study reveal unidirectional relationship from non-life insurance to economic growth. The bidirectional relationship between life insurance and economic growth and total insurance and economic growth imply that policies for increasing the penetration of the life insurance sector and insurance sector as a whole in selected Asian countries are likely to augment investment opportunities and enhance the productive capacity of the economy thereby stimulating the overall economic growth. Second, expansion in economic activities with increase in economic growth is likely to lead to the growth in penetration rate of the life insurance sector and total insurance sector in selected Asian economies. The evidence of supply-leading hypothesis from the non-life insurance and economic growth relationship implies that the policies for increasing the penetration of non-life insurance sector in selected Asian countries are likely to augment investment opportunities and enhance the productive capacity of the economy thereby, stimulating the overall economic growth. Second, expansion in economic activities with increase in economic growth fails to provide synergy for the growth in the penetration rate of the non-life insurance sector in selected Asian economies. The study suggests that appropriate policies and/or strategies should be formulated for increasing the penetration of non-life insurance sector in Asian economies. In this direction, emphasis should be given in asset/property insurance, health insurance, crop insurance etc. It is also suggested that, both life and non-life should reformulate their business models targeting “the goldpost at the bottom of the pyramid”. When the small savings of rural masses are strategically targeted and achieved, the insurance penetration will increase thereby fostering the macroeconomic growth of Asian countries. The study further suggests that emphasis should be given in the development of appropriate life insurance policies to mobilize larger resources for financing productive projects targeting higher rate of overall economic growth because bidirectional causal relationship has been observed between the development of life insurance sector and economic growth in Asian countries.
Multi-dimensional Poverty in Rural Kashmir: Extent, Determinants and Policy Options
(Central University of Punjab, 2018) Unjum, Irfana; Mishra, Pabitra Kumar
Conventionally, poverty is measured in monetary terms, either using income or consumption expenditure. But since the seminal work of Amartya Sen, poverty has been acknowledged as a multidimensional phenomenon and has gained the attention of researchers, economists and policy makers. Multidimensional approach captures the broader picture of poverty as it involves innumerable dimensions which is impossible in the uni-dimensional approach of poverty. The broad objective of the study is to examine the nature and extent of multidimensional poverty and also find out the determinants of poverty in the rural Kashmir of Jammu and Kashmir state. The study is based on primary data collected during first quarter of 2016 from eight villages namely, Adlash Magam, Niamatpora, Zainpora, Zerakan, Faqir Gujri, Sangam, Anayatpora and Pushwari of rural Kashmir. This study is inimitable in including eight dimensions with twenty-seven indicators of human well-being. The dimensions used are Economic, Health, Education, Wealth, Work and Employment, Ownership of Productive Assets, Empowerment and Social Participation. For examining the nature and extent of multidimensional poverty in rural Kashmir, Alkire-Foster method is used. In order to find out the determinants of poverty, logistic regression model is used. The results reveal that, both uni-dimensional (income poverty) poverty and multidimensional poverty is prevailing in the rural Kashmir. As v the Alkire-Foster method shows the incidence and intensity of poverty, the incidence of poverty in the rural Kashmir is 0.856 which means about 85 per cent of the households in the rural Kashmir are multidimensionally poor. However, the intensity of poverty is 0.461 which means on an average a household is deprived in almost 46 per cent of the indicators in rural Kashmir. The results of logistic regression model reveal that the low level of education of household head is an important cause of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. It implies that lower the level of education of household head, higher is the probability of the household being categorized as poor. Therefore, policy focus should be on encouraging free, compulsory and quality education at the primary level, and skill-embedded vocational education at the secondary level in the rural region of Kashmir. The focus is also needed to ensure functional literacy of all members of the households so as to make them capable to support their livelihood. Specifically, for adult household members, the vocational/job-oriented training should be given through non-formal education centres to enhance their employability in the formal sector. Furthermore, the self-help groups need to be strengthened by providing them with the skill-based training through non-formal education centres to improve the earning capacity of women. All these will bring work efficiency and productivity among the rural masses which in turn will contribute to enhanced earnings and help to exit from poverty. It is again found that the underemployment of the household head in the informal sector is another important cause of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. So, the policy circle should focus on increasing employment opportunities in the region may be by undertaking more number of public works programmes, providing skill-based training for the creation more productive labour force capable of working in technology savvy jobs, and by creating enabling environment that encourages micro, small and medium scale enterprises. Furthermore, the emphasis should be given to encouraging the women employment may be through self-help groups in the rural Kashmir. Similarly, emphasis may be given to deepening of handicraft business in rural Kashmir. This will certainly contribute to the removal of poverty by eliminating the problems of underemployment of rural people in the informal sector. vi It is found that the type of house and the number of rooms in it, also determines the extent of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. It has already been established in the various context that pucca housing with more number of rooms reduces the chance of a household falling into poverty. Thus, the policy makers need to focus on improving the dwelling conditions of rural households in Kashmir may be by providing free/subsidised housing to BPL families, creating income earning opportunities for rural masses, and assisting people to build better housing with the help of appropriate housing schemes. It is found that the households not having any kind of debt burden are less likely to come into the grip of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. So, it is imperative on the part of the policy circle to focus on putting an adequate amount of purchasing power in the hands of rural people through appropriately designed work & employment opportunities such that households will not fall into debt trap. It is also found that the households having some sorts of exposure to poverty alleviation programmes are less likely to be in multi-dimensional poverty. Therefore, there is a need for holistic and sustainable anti-poverty programmes that aware and empowers rural people to come out of the grips of poverty. The proper implementation of the anti-poverty programmes together with quality education, training and awareness at the grass-root level, will certainly ensure the socio-economic empowerment of rural households.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPERIENCE FROM SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES
(Central University of Punjab, 2018) HABIB, MUSAVIR UL; Mishra, Pabitra Kumar
Healthy economic growth is regarded as the most basic materials of any economy to increase the economic production, reduce the poverty and in general enhance the quality of life. World economy has witnessed huge change in the growth performance of countries since the onset of industrial revolution. The industrial revolution in the developed economies of West was made possible only due to the exploitation of fossil fuels which, in turn, was made possible by capital goods innovations that enabled this source of energy to be used efficiently. Thus the combination of the modern technology and energy use is found to be the crucial for the rapid development of economies. The industrialization in the West was accompanied by an energy transition away from traditional biomass, and towards modern fuels. The modern developed economies show that the energy consumption and economic growth go hand in hand, as these economies show high energy consumption as compared to the other less developed economies and these economies consume a fairly high proportion of total energy resources of globe. In order to spur the pace of economic growth, a number of theories have been developed which enriched the growth literature in emphasizing the distinct steps required for raising economic growth. The physical and biological theories has been highly relevant with the role of energy in day to day life, be it for undertaking any physical work, or the production of food by living organisms. However, the theories in economic literature ascribe little role to energy in determining the economic growth of any country. The classical economists declared that land, labour and capital are the main factors of production and they neglected the important role played by the energy in the production process as well as economic progress. Famous growth theories in the literature such as the Harrod-Domar growth model; and the subsequent, wellknown theory commonly referred to as the Solow-Swan growth model, among others, claim that energy has nothing to do with the production function, and hence, energy has little relevance with the economic growth. Similarly, other theories proposed by Monetarists and subsequent Endogenous growth theorists also haven’t paid any ii attention to the energy as a driving factor for economic growth. In this backdrop, the current study attempts to examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in multivariate framework for the panel of 13 Asian countries. Besides, the study also investigates the relationship between the energy and economic growth for the individual countries. The results from the study prove the existence of bidirectional causality or feedback hypothesis for the selected panel of countries. However, in case of individual countries, the results are diverse, i.e. Japan represent feedback hypothesis, while as growth hypothesis is proven by India, Iran, Malaysia and South Korea. Furthermore, conservation hypothesis is proven by China, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam. Finally, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines and Turkey show no causality relationship between energy and economic growth. The results from the study may prove extremely helpful in making the decision of energy consumption with regard to boosting economic growth and economic sustainability among these selected countries. The study also found that there is increase in the energy supply especially in the resource rich economies. However, the energy demand is growing very rapidly among all the selected economies. In order to analyze the inequality in the energy use or the disparities in energy use among the selected countries, the study uses the tools of Gini coefficient. The results found that there are the evidences of energy inequality among the countries. However, this inequality has shown the declining tendency over the years but the decline in inequality is relatively very low. It is also found that the high income countries are the ones with high energy consumption. The study also purports to evaluate the possibility of energy inefficiency among the selected economies. The energy efficiency of the selected economies is calculated by the use of DEA methodology. The DEA analysis shows that there is inefficiency in the energy use among the economies. It is also found that the energy efficiency is very high in the high income countries, where as it is very low in the low income countries. Thus, these results suggest that the developing economies should increase their energy efficiency for their sustainable growth.
Seasonality in Tourism and Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India
(UTI, 2018) Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Rout, H.B.; Pradhan, B.B.
In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to suggest an accurate method of producing the reliable forecast of foreign tourist arrivals. This paper evaluated the performance of Holt-Winters’ and Seasonal ARIMA models for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The data on India’s inbound tourism from Jan-2001 to June-2018 were used for preparing the forecast for the period July-2018 to June-2020. On the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Square Error, the findings infer the relative efficiency of Holt-Winters’ model over Seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the foreign tourist arrivals in India. Thus, to reduce the perceived negative impacts of seasonality in Indian inbound tourism and to ensure foreign tourist visits round the year, niche products best suitable for Indian climatic and socio-cultural-institutional conditions need to be introduced and promoted in a large scale both at the national and global levels.