Department Of Economic Studies

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    Seasonality in Tourism and Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India
    (UTI, 2018) Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Rout, H.B.; Pradhan, B.B.
    In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to suggest an accurate method of producing the reliable forecast of foreign tourist arrivals. This paper evaluated the performance of Holt-Winters’ and Seasonal ARIMA models for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The data on India’s inbound tourism from Jan-2001 to June-2018 were used for preparing the forecast for the period July-2018 to June-2020. On the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Square Error, the findings infer the relative efficiency of Holt-Winters’ model over Seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the foreign tourist arrivals in India. Thus, to reduce the perceived negative impacts of seasonality in Indian inbound tourism and to ensure foreign tourist visits round the year, niche products best suitable for Indian climatic and socio-cultural-institutional conditions need to be introduced and promoted in a large scale both at the national and global levels.
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    Tourism and economic growth in jammu kashmir
    (Central University of Punjab, 2014) Unjum, Irfana; Singh, Kulwinder
    From last few decades "Tourism" has been world's rapidly growing industry. In Jammu and Kashmir, tourism is an important industry as scope of agricultural and industrial development is limited. Present study investigates the role of tourism in the economic growth of Jammu and Kashmir during the period from 2004-05 to 2012-13. It also analyses the impact of tourism on livelihood as well as on the income and expenditure level of the stakeholders involved in this business. Besides secondary data, study is based on the primary data collected from the four tourist destinations namely, Katra, Patnitop, Gulmarg and Pahalgam of the state. Findings of the study reveal that tourism is one of the important sectors of Jammu and Kashmir. Having bi-directional relationship between tourism and economic growth, tourism contributes significantly to the GSDP of the state. The contribution of tourism in income and employment is found to be significant as the stakeholders involved in this business are earning fair income and also the employment provided by this sector is usually permanent. Moreover, average working hours in the tourism business are more for permanent employees than temporary ones, and so is the average monthly income. Income from tourism has positive and significant impact on the expenditure and investment level of the stakeholders.
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    Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Odisha, India,
    (Serial Publications Pvt.Ltd., 2016) Rout, Himanshu B.; Mishra, P. K.; Pradhan, B.B.
    In view of the importance of tourism as an instrument for economic growth and employment generation, this paper is an effort to examine the nexus between tourism and economic growth in Odisha during 1990-91 and 2013-14; specifically the aim is to examine the tourism-led growth hypothesis at the state level. The study provides the empirical evidence of the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism and economic growth in the State. Precisely, it provides the evidence of stable, significant and positive response of tourism to economic growth. This finding is important from policy perspective. The State government is required to priority to the promotion of tourism so as to lead a stable and inclusive growth of Odisha.