Department Of Economic Studies

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India�s Merchandise Exports to Asia: A Constant Market Share Analysis
(Sage Publications India Pvt. Ltd, 2022-02-08T00:00:00) Fayaz, Mohd; Kaur, Sandeep
The present study attempts to examine the structural changes in Indian merchandise exports to Asia during the period 1980�2016 by using Constant Market Share (CMS) analysis. The index values of the CMS analysis suggest that India has mostly maintained and strengthened its export market share primarily in resource-based and low tech/labour-intensive products. Major technology-intensive exports include organic chemicals and dyes and colouring materials to all its export destinations in Asia. The market effect result shows a positive impact on India�s export performance which suggests that India has diversified its exports to South Asia, Southeast Asia and West and Central Asia. However, market adaptation effect result shows negative impact in East Asian market which means that India is lacking in adapting the import structure of this market. JEL Codes: F1, F14, F43, L6, O53 � 2022 Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
DYNAMICS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN INDIA’S EXPORTS, 1980-2016
(Central University of Punjab, 2018) Fayaz, Mohd.; Bhatia, Sandeep Kaur
The international trade flows have been dramatically expanding due to the growing integration of the world economies and have experienced spectacular changes over the past few decades. For that reason, the present study attempts to examine the dynamics of structural changes in India’s exports over the 1980-2016 period. Through the analysis of trends and patterns of India’s merchandise exports, the study finds that there is a declining share of primary products while the share of manufactured goods and petroleum products have increased. Further, the analysis of the direction of India’s exports reveals diversification especially towards South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa during the study period. The current study also extends analysis of Indian exports in terms of technological intensity over the 1980-2016 period. The results show that the exports of all said emerging economies have a large technological base owing to their significant investments in R&D and open-door policies. While the figures of Indian exports also show a steady though slow technological upgradation from low-tech to medium and high-tech exports but when compared to the standards of these emerging economies, are low. Further the study employs Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Constant Market Share (CMS) analysis for the ten exports destinations namely OECD, EU, USA, OPEC, UAE, Africa, Asia, East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and West and Central Asia. Results of RCA shows that India has a comparative advantage in the exports of primary products in the markets of OECD, EU, USA, iv and OPEC. While in the markets of UAE, Africa, South & Southeast Asia, and West and Central Asia, India has a comparative advantage in the exports of both primary and manufactured products. The analysis further observes that the maximum number of commodities with a comparative advantage among all the export destinations are concentrated in UAE, Africa and Asia (except East Asia). While the results of the Market Effect (ME) and Market Adaptation Effect (MAE) shows that Indian exports to OECD, EU, OPEC, Africa, and West & Central Asia are comprised of the products for which the demand is relatively slow. However, in the markets of UAE, USA, East Asia and South & Southeast Asia, India is specializing in the products for which the demand is strong and can adapt their export structure to changes in the market composition of their imports. Also the analysis of the determinants of high technology intensive and low technology-intensive exports have been carried out by through Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For high technology exports, the present study finds a direct and significant long-run relationship with the world demand, FDI and R&D. For low technology-intensive exports, the study finds a positive and significant relationship of FDI and industrial value-added while world demand is found to be negatively related, however, is not significant. Thus in the view of above findings, the present study suggests that there is a need to devise policies that would make a favourable environment for attracting more FDI to build absorptive capability so that the movement towards the production of high technology intensive products and thereby exports could be facilitated. Further, the results show that India has reasonably diversified its exports in South and Southeast Asia and West and Central Asia with gaining importance in the exports of non-traditional and technological based items. However, there is an ample scope to diversify its exports in the market of East Asia into the sectors where international demand is high and swelling.
Whether FDI or Exports Enhance from Indian Manufacturing Firms
(Euro American Association, 2017) Singh, Krishan; Kaur, Sandeep
The economic reforms of 1991 resulted in an increased inflow of FDI into the Indian economy. However, for the invention of new techniques and skills, there is a great need to invest on R&D, requires a huge amount of capital, which can be available through FDI inflows. Technology has been imported in heavy amount after the implementation of liberalization policies. Therefore, the present study intends to know whether FDI contributes to the Indian manufacturing sector through R&D or not. The average growth of the manufacturing sector in India (7.93 per cent) has been found considerably higher during the second decade of reforms (2001-2012) as compared to first decade reforms (1991-2000). In the context of this, the present study has tried to examine the trends and patterns of FDI and R&D in manufacturing firms of India during the second decade of reforms (2001-12) and also, to analyze the impact of FDI and exports on R&D in manufacturing firms of India through fixed effect model. The results suggest that R&D has been significantly impacted by the import of capital goods, foreign equity, disembodied technology, and export intensity during the second decade of liberalization period. The present study suggests that greater approvals for foreign capital inflows are required in India, for enhancing the R&D in the manufacturing sector. There must be an appropriate coordination between public and private sector, which can improve the R&D expenditure of manufacturing firms of India.
India’s Trade with Central Asia: Trends and Prospects
(IACD- Institute of Asian Culture and Development, 2011) Kaur, Sandeep
Although the countries of Central Asia have been integrated in the global economy, their economic relations with India have been declined significantly. India’s BOT with all Central Asian countries (except Uzbekistan) had been favourable during 1993- 2009. Indian exports as well as imports from Central Asia are highly concentrated around few commodities during same period. Moreover, the Central Asia’s role in selected Indian exports as well as imports was not so strong and in fact negligible. There has been found very low trade of India with Central Asian countries. This is due to many reasons but lack of economic and financial sector reforms in some of these countries is one of the basic reasons. The other factors of this low trade are lack of direct transport links, poor infrastructure, inadequate banking facilities and tax structure, competition by Russia, China and USA etc. India can increase trade relations with Central Asia and also can play a multi- dimensional role in the development of these former Soviet Republics. Recently these economies have grown up; therefore good economic relations of India with Central Asia can boost their trade.

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