Prediction of soil erosion risk using earth observation data under recent emission scenarios of CMIP6

Abstract

The earth observation data and CMIP6 models were used to predict plausible soil loss from the Ghaghara river basin. The decadal prediction of soil loss (28.64 ton/ha/year) was found high for SSP585 of CanESM5 during 2015�2025. However, the lower value was reported as 21.71 ton/ha/year for SSP245 of MRI-ESM2-0 during 2035�2045. The century level future rainfall erosivity factor was found lowest for SSP245, however highest for SSP585 of Access-ESM1-5, CanESM5, and IPSL-CM6A-LR. The SSP585 (Access-ESM1-5, CanESM5, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) have maximum soil erosion rate as 29.07, 28.03, and 28.0 ton/ha/year, respectively. For the SSP585, increments were observed as 35.93%, 31.04%, and 30%, respectively, compared to the baseline year (2014). Whereas, lowest was reported as 21.7 and 24.9 ton/ha/year and consequently the low increment as 1.31% and 16.55% for both scenarios of MRI-ESM2-0 compared to baseline. We observed that the soil erosion rate is aligned with the predicted rainfall erosivity factor. � 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.