Economic Studies - Research Publications
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://kr.cup.edu.in/handle/32116/141
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Item Empirics of Tourism-Led Growth in India, 1995 to 2016(ASERS, 2018) Rout, H.B.; Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Pradhan, B.B.In the globalized world, the travel and tourism have been considered crucial for achieving inclusive growth, especially in less developed economies. It has been increasingly recognised as a good contributor to national income and employment. So it can be used an instrument for achieving a higher rate of economic growth of a country in the long-run. In this line of argument, this paper examined the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the context of Indian States/UTs in a panel data framework. The empirical findings support the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the long-run and growth-led tourism hypothesis in the short-run. Thus, the policy choice is to make the tourism instrumental, through its promotional strategies, for the inclusive and sustainable development of India.Item Seasonality in Tourism and Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India(UTI, 2018) Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Rout, H.B.; Pradhan, B.B.In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to suggest an accurate method of producing the reliable forecast of foreign tourist arrivals. This paper evaluated the performance of Holt-Winters’ and Seasonal ARIMA models for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The data on India’s inbound tourism from Jan-2001 to June-2018 were used for preparing the forecast for the period July-2018 to June-2020. On the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Square Error, the findings infer the relative efficiency of Holt-Winters’ model over Seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the foreign tourist arrivals in India. Thus, to reduce the perceived negative impacts of seasonality in Indian inbound tourism and to ensure foreign tourist visits round the year, niche products best suitable for Indian climatic and socio-cultural-institutional conditions need to be introduced and promoted in a large scale both at the national and global levels.Item Economic growth, structural change and intersectoral linkages in SAARC economies(Asociacion Euro-Americana de Estudios del Desarrollo, 2017) Mishra, P.K.; Mall, M.; Pradhan, B.B.In this globalized and liberalized era, studies concerning global economic interdependence have occupied a central place. Specifically, the issue of assessing the extent to which the economic growth of each member nation in a regional cooperation can influence the growth of other members, has recently attracted the attentions of academicians, researchers and policy makers as well. Despite the fact that SAARC (South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation) has been constituted in 1985 for promoting peace, stability and progress in the region, yet it has to produce notable outcomes. On the basis of the argument that structural changes in an economy can foster its economic growth and influence de facto economic integration across member nations, this paper investigates the sectoral interdependencies in SAARC economies. This study adds to extant literature by interpreting macroeconomic interdependence in terms of intersectoral linkages. The study found that the partner countries of SAARC demonstrate different trend patterns of economic growth fostered by different patterns of structural transformations. In a panel framework, the study provides the evidence of long-run equilibrium relationship between the agriculture, industry and services sectors among SAARC countries. The analysis found the evidence of causal relationship running from industrial and services sectors to the agricultural sector in the long-run. There is also the evidence of short-run bidirectional causality between agricultural and services sectors, and between industrial and services sectors. Additionally, short-run unidirectional causality is observed running from industrial sector to agricultural sector. The estimation of long-run elasticities concludes the existence of strong positive long-run intersectoral linkages between the three sectors in the SAARC region which would be helpful in utilizing each other's economic potential, business environment, and legal frameworks that may facilitate mutual trade and better sectoral integration.Item Socio-economic impacts of tourism in india: An empirical analysis(ASERS Publishing House, 2016) Rout, Himanshu B.; Mishra, P. K.; Pradhan, B.B.The importance of tourism as an instrument for economic growth and employment generation, particularly in remote and backward areas, has been well recognized world over. It is the largest service industry globally in terms of gross revenue as well as foreign exchange earnings. Tourism plays an effective role in achieving growth with equity objectives which we have set for ourselves. The extant tourism literature suggests that the expansion on tourism sector can contribute to long-run macroeconomic performance of developing countries. India ving high potential for the expansion of tourism industry can be a catalyst for the long-run socio-economic growth. Thus, we have investigated the impact of tourism on India?s economic growth over a period from 1990 to 2015. The results predict the possibility of long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism and economic growth. This justifies for the identification of the indicators which should be emphasized while formulating plans and policies for tourism sector expansion. The estimation of long-run regression model suggests that the indicators such as foreign exchange earnings, international tourists spending, domestic expenditure on tourism and capital investment by all industries related to travel and tourism are critical in making tourism industry an engine of economic growth. ? 2016. ASERS Publishing. All rights reserved.Item Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Odisha, India,(Serial Publications Pvt.Ltd., 2016) Rout, Himanshu B.; Mishra, P. K.; Pradhan, B.B.In view of the importance of tourism as an instrument for economic growth and employment generation, this paper is an effort to examine the nexus between tourism and economic growth in Odisha during 1990-91 and 2013-14; specifically the aim is to examine the tourism-led growth hypothesis at the state level. The study provides the empirical evidence of the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism and economic growth in the State. Precisely, it provides the evidence of stable, significant and positive response of tourism to economic growth. This finding is important from policy perspective. The State government is required to priority to the promotion of tourism so as to lead a stable and inclusive growth of Odisha.Item Trend and progress of tourism in India: An empirical analysis(Serials Publications, 2016) Rout, H.B.; Mishra, P.K.; Pradhan, B.B.The importance of tourism in India can by no means be underestimated. It helps the tourists to get use to with the culture, customs and conventions, language and mode of living of the people at destination. The most important benefits of tourism include job creation, foreign currency earnings, infrastructure development, poverty eradication, inequality reduction and balanced regional development. In addition, tourism is critical for increasing world peace. Thus, we have studied the trend and progress of tourism in India over the period spanning from 1995 to 2015. All tourism indicators except total contribution of travel and tourism to employment have been showing an increasing trend in India over the sample period. All these have been possible due to the constructive efforts made by the Centre and State governments over years. The government of India understands the importance of tourism in building a vibrant sustainable economy in the long-run. Thus, from time to time increasing importance has been attached to this service sector. Several plans, policies, projects, and schemes have been launched for the development of tourism sector activities in India. India is therefore, hopeful to accrue the benefits of multiplier effects of tourism in coming days. IJER � Serials Publications.