Economic Studies - Research Publications

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://kr.cup.edu.in/handle/32116/141

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Author: search.filters.author.Rout, H.B.Has files: Yes

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    Seasonality in Tourism and Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India
    (UTI, 2018) Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Rout, H.B.; Pradhan, B.B.
    In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to suggest an accurate method of producing the reliable forecast of foreign tourist arrivals. This paper evaluated the performance of Holt-Winters’ and Seasonal ARIMA models for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The data on India’s inbound tourism from Jan-2001 to June-2018 were used for preparing the forecast for the period July-2018 to June-2020. On the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Square Error, the findings infer the relative efficiency of Holt-Winters’ model over Seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the foreign tourist arrivals in India. Thus, to reduce the perceived negative impacts of seasonality in Indian inbound tourism and to ensure foreign tourist visits round the year, niche products best suitable for Indian climatic and socio-cultural-institutional conditions need to be introduced and promoted in a large scale both at the national and global levels.
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    Trend and progress of tourism in India: An empirical analysis
    (Serials Publications, 2016) Rout, H.B.; Mishra, P.K.; Pradhan, B.B.
    The importance of tourism in India can by no means be underestimated. It helps the tourists to get use to with the culture, customs and conventions, language and mode of living of the people at destination. The most important benefits of tourism include job creation, foreign currency earnings, infrastructure development, poverty eradication, inequality reduction and balanced regional development. In addition, tourism is critical for increasing world peace. Thus, we have studied the trend and progress of tourism in India over the period spanning from 1995 to 2015. All tourism indicators except total contribution of travel and tourism to employment have been showing an increasing trend in India over the sample period. All these have been possible due to the constructive efforts made by the Centre and State governments over years. The government of India understands the importance of tourism in building a vibrant sustainable economy in the long-run. Thus, from time to time increasing importance has been attached to this service sector. Several plans, policies, projects, and schemes have been launched for the development of tourism sector activities in India. India is therefore, hopeful to accrue the benefits of multiplier effects of tourism in coming days. IJER � Serials Publications.