Economic Studies - Research Publications

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://kr.cup.edu.in/handle/32116/141

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Author: search.filters.author.Rout, H.B.

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    Empirics of Tourism-Led Growth in India, 1995 to 2016
    (ASERS, 2018) Rout, H.B.; Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Pradhan, B.B.
    In the globalized world, the travel and tourism have been considered crucial for achieving inclusive growth, especially in less developed economies. It has been increasingly recognised as a good contributor to national income and employment. So it can be used an instrument for achieving a higher rate of economic growth of a country in the long-run. In this line of argument, this paper examined the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the context of Indian States/UTs in a panel data framework. The empirical findings support the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the long-run and growth-led tourism hypothesis in the short-run. Thus, the policy choice is to make the tourism instrumental, through its promotional strategies, for the inclusive and sustainable development of India.
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    Seasonality in Tourism and Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India
    (UTI, 2018) Mishra, Pabitra Kumar; Rout, H.B.; Pradhan, B.B.
    In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to suggest an accurate method of producing the reliable forecast of foreign tourist arrivals. This paper evaluated the performance of Holt-Winters’ and Seasonal ARIMA models for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The data on India’s inbound tourism from Jan-2001 to June-2018 were used for preparing the forecast for the period July-2018 to June-2020. On the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Square Error, the findings infer the relative efficiency of Holt-Winters’ model over Seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the foreign tourist arrivals in India. Thus, to reduce the perceived negative impacts of seasonality in Indian inbound tourism and to ensure foreign tourist visits round the year, niche products best suitable for Indian climatic and socio-cultural-institutional conditions need to be introduced and promoted in a large scale both at the national and global levels.
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    Tourism in Odisha: an engine of long run growth
    (Conscientia Beam, 2016) Mishra, P.K.; Rout, H.B.; Sangmitra
    In this globalized era, travel and tourism has become an indispensable economic activity world over. It has the potential to strengthen the socio-economic foundation of a nation. It has the capability to disseminate the peace message across the globe. It is well-known for job creation, foreign exchange earnings, revenue and income generations, and developing socio-economic infrastructures. Thus, it is critical for unemployment reduction, poverty alleviation, inequality reduction, and bringing up balanced regional development. It is instrumental for achieving inclusive and sustainable growth of a nation like India and her States. It is with this backdrop, this paper is an attempt to assess the role of tourism in Odisha, an eastern State of India, as an engine of long-run economic growth. In recent years, tourism has grown considerably due to the availability of good infrastructure facilities, favorable government policies, improvement of existing tourist locations, development of new tourist destinations and strong growth of hotel and restaurant industry in the State. This is reflected in the growing number of both domestic and foreign tourists to the State. In a multivariate framework, the use of multiple regression model over the period spanning from 1990-91 to 2011-12 provides the evidence of the positive contribution of the tourism sector to the economic growth of Odisha thereby justifying the role of tourism as an engine of long term growth of the State. Hence, the government of Odisha should formulate plans and policies such that tourism activities are promoted to lead a stable and sustainable growth of the State.
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    Trend and progress of tourism in India: An empirical analysis
    (Serials Publications, 2016) Rout, H.B.; Mishra, P.K.; Pradhan, B.B.
    The importance of tourism in India can by no means be underestimated. It helps the tourists to get use to with the culture, customs and conventions, language and mode of living of the people at destination. The most important benefits of tourism include job creation, foreign currency earnings, infrastructure development, poverty eradication, inequality reduction and balanced regional development. In addition, tourism is critical for increasing world peace. Thus, we have studied the trend and progress of tourism in India over the period spanning from 1995 to 2015. All tourism indicators except total contribution of travel and tourism to employment have been showing an increasing trend in India over the sample period. All these have been possible due to the constructive efforts made by the Centre and State governments over years. The government of India understands the importance of tourism in building a vibrant sustainable economy in the long-run. Thus, from time to time increasing importance has been attached to this service sector. Several plans, policies, projects, and schemes have been launched for the development of tourism sector activities in India. India is therefore, hopeful to accrue the benefits of multiplier effects of tourism in coming days. IJER � Serials Publications.