Economic Studies - Research Publications
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Item An Economic Analysis of Production and Marketing of Vegetables Under Contract Farming in Punjab(Central University of Punjab, 2018) Pavneet; Singla, NareshItem DYNAMICS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN INDIA’S EXPORTS, 1980-2016(Central University of Punjab, 2018) Fayaz, Mohd.; Bhatia, Sandeep KaurThe international trade flows have been dramatically expanding due to the growing integration of the world economies and have experienced spectacular changes over the past few decades. For that reason, the present study attempts to examine the dynamics of structural changes in India’s exports over the 1980-2016 period. Through the analysis of trends and patterns of India’s merchandise exports, the study finds that there is a declining share of primary products while the share of manufactured goods and petroleum products have increased. Further, the analysis of the direction of India’s exports reveals diversification especially towards South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa during the study period. The current study also extends analysis of Indian exports in terms of technological intensity over the 1980-2016 period. The results show that the exports of all said emerging economies have a large technological base owing to their significant investments in R&D and open-door policies. While the figures of Indian exports also show a steady though slow technological upgradation from low-tech to medium and high-tech exports but when compared to the standards of these emerging economies, are low. Further the study employs Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Constant Market Share (CMS) analysis for the ten exports destinations namely OECD, EU, USA, OPEC, UAE, Africa, Asia, East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and West and Central Asia. Results of RCA shows that India has a comparative advantage in the exports of primary products in the markets of OECD, EU, USA, iv and OPEC. While in the markets of UAE, Africa, South & Southeast Asia, and West and Central Asia, India has a comparative advantage in the exports of both primary and manufactured products. The analysis further observes that the maximum number of commodities with a comparative advantage among all the export destinations are concentrated in UAE, Africa and Asia (except East Asia). While the results of the Market Effect (ME) and Market Adaptation Effect (MAE) shows that Indian exports to OECD, EU, OPEC, Africa, and West & Central Asia are comprised of the products for which the demand is relatively slow. However, in the markets of UAE, USA, East Asia and South & Southeast Asia, India is specializing in the products for which the demand is strong and can adapt their export structure to changes in the market composition of their imports. Also the analysis of the determinants of high technology intensive and low technology-intensive exports have been carried out by through Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For high technology exports, the present study finds a direct and significant long-run relationship with the world demand, FDI and R&D. For low technology-intensive exports, the study finds a positive and significant relationship of FDI and industrial value-added while world demand is found to be negatively related, however, is not significant. Thus in the view of above findings, the present study suggests that there is a need to devise policies that would make a favourable environment for attracting more FDI to build absorptive capability so that the movement towards the production of high technology intensive products and thereby exports could be facilitated. Further, the results show that India has reasonably diversified its exports in South and Southeast Asia and West and Central Asia with gaining importance in the exports of non-traditional and technological based items. However, there is an ample scope to diversify its exports in the market of East Asia into the sectors where international demand is high and swelling.Item RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPERIENCE FROM SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES(Central University of Punjab, 2018) HABIB, MUSAVIR UL; Mishra, Pabitra KumarHealthy economic growth is regarded as the most basic materials of any economy to increase the economic production, reduce the poverty and in general enhance the quality of life. World economy has witnessed huge change in the growth performance of countries since the onset of industrial revolution. The industrial revolution in the developed economies of West was made possible only due to the exploitation of fossil fuels which, in turn, was made possible by capital goods innovations that enabled this source of energy to be used efficiently. Thus the combination of the modern technology and energy use is found to be the crucial for the rapid development of economies. The industrialization in the West was accompanied by an energy transition away from traditional biomass, and towards modern fuels. The modern developed economies show that the energy consumption and economic growth go hand in hand, as these economies show high energy consumption as compared to the other less developed economies and these economies consume a fairly high proportion of total energy resources of globe. In order to spur the pace of economic growth, a number of theories have been developed which enriched the growth literature in emphasizing the distinct steps required for raising economic growth. The physical and biological theories has been highly relevant with the role of energy in day to day life, be it for undertaking any physical work, or the production of food by living organisms. However, the theories in economic literature ascribe little role to energy in determining the economic growth of any country. The classical economists declared that land, labour and capital are the main factors of production and they neglected the important role played by the energy in the production process as well as economic progress. Famous growth theories in the literature such as the Harrod-Domar growth model; and the subsequent, wellknown theory commonly referred to as the Solow-Swan growth model, among others, claim that energy has nothing to do with the production function, and hence, energy has little relevance with the economic growth. Similarly, other theories proposed by Monetarists and subsequent Endogenous growth theorists also haven’t paid any ii attention to the energy as a driving factor for economic growth. In this backdrop, the current study attempts to examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in multivariate framework for the panel of 13 Asian countries. Besides, the study also investigates the relationship between the energy and economic growth for the individual countries. The results from the study prove the existence of bidirectional causality or feedback hypothesis for the selected panel of countries. However, in case of individual countries, the results are diverse, i.e. Japan represent feedback hypothesis, while as growth hypothesis is proven by India, Iran, Malaysia and South Korea. Furthermore, conservation hypothesis is proven by China, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam. Finally, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines and Turkey show no causality relationship between energy and economic growth. The results from the study may prove extremely helpful in making the decision of energy consumption with regard to boosting economic growth and economic sustainability among these selected countries. The study also found that there is increase in the energy supply especially in the resource rich economies. However, the energy demand is growing very rapidly among all the selected economies. In order to analyze the inequality in the energy use or the disparities in energy use among the selected countries, the study uses the tools of Gini coefficient. The results found that there are the evidences of energy inequality among the countries. However, this inequality has shown the declining tendency over the years but the decline in inequality is relatively very low. It is also found that the high income countries are the ones with high energy consumption. The study also purports to evaluate the possibility of energy inefficiency among the selected economies. The energy efficiency of the selected economies is calculated by the use of DEA methodology. The DEA analysis shows that there is inefficiency in the energy use among the economies. It is also found that the energy efficiency is very high in the high income countries, where as it is very low in the low income countries. Thus, these results suggest that the developing economies should increase their energy efficiency for their sustainable growth.Item Multi-dimensional Poverty in Rural Kashmir: Extent, Determinants and Policy Options(Central University of Punjab, 2018) Unjum, Irfana; Mishra, Pabitra KumarConventionally, poverty is measured in monetary terms, either using income or consumption expenditure. But since the seminal work of Amartya Sen, poverty has been acknowledged as a multidimensional phenomenon and has gained the attention of researchers, economists and policy makers. Multidimensional approach captures the broader picture of poverty as it involves innumerable dimensions which is impossible in the uni-dimensional approach of poverty. The broad objective of the study is to examine the nature and extent of multidimensional poverty and also find out the determinants of poverty in the rural Kashmir of Jammu and Kashmir state. The study is based on primary data collected during first quarter of 2016 from eight villages namely, Adlash Magam, Niamatpora, Zainpora, Zerakan, Faqir Gujri, Sangam, Anayatpora and Pushwari of rural Kashmir. This study is inimitable in including eight dimensions with twenty-seven indicators of human well-being. The dimensions used are Economic, Health, Education, Wealth, Work and Employment, Ownership of Productive Assets, Empowerment and Social Participation. For examining the nature and extent of multidimensional poverty in rural Kashmir, Alkire-Foster method is used. In order to find out the determinants of poverty, logistic regression model is used. The results reveal that, both uni-dimensional (income poverty) poverty and multidimensional poverty is prevailing in the rural Kashmir. As v the Alkire-Foster method shows the incidence and intensity of poverty, the incidence of poverty in the rural Kashmir is 0.856 which means about 85 per cent of the households in the rural Kashmir are multidimensionally poor. However, the intensity of poverty is 0.461 which means on an average a household is deprived in almost 46 per cent of the indicators in rural Kashmir. The results of logistic regression model reveal that the low level of education of household head is an important cause of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. It implies that lower the level of education of household head, higher is the probability of the household being categorized as poor. Therefore, policy focus should be on encouraging free, compulsory and quality education at the primary level, and skill-embedded vocational education at the secondary level in the rural region of Kashmir. The focus is also needed to ensure functional literacy of all members of the households so as to make them capable to support their livelihood. Specifically, for adult household members, the vocational/job-oriented training should be given through non-formal education centres to enhance their employability in the formal sector. Furthermore, the self-help groups need to be strengthened by providing them with the skill-based training through non-formal education centres to improve the earning capacity of women. All these will bring work efficiency and productivity among the rural masses which in turn will contribute to enhanced earnings and help to exit from poverty. It is again found that the underemployment of the household head in the informal sector is another important cause of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. So, the policy circle should focus on increasing employment opportunities in the region may be by undertaking more number of public works programmes, providing skill-based training for the creation more productive labour force capable of working in technology savvy jobs, and by creating enabling environment that encourages micro, small and medium scale enterprises. Furthermore, the emphasis should be given to encouraging the women employment may be through self-help groups in the rural Kashmir. Similarly, emphasis may be given to deepening of handicraft business in rural Kashmir. This will certainly contribute to the removal of poverty by eliminating the problems of underemployment of rural people in the informal sector. vi It is found that the type of house and the number of rooms in it, also determines the extent of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. It has already been established in the various context that pucca housing with more number of rooms reduces the chance of a household falling into poverty. Thus, the policy makers need to focus on improving the dwelling conditions of rural households in Kashmir may be by providing free/subsidised housing to BPL families, creating income earning opportunities for rural masses, and assisting people to build better housing with the help of appropriate housing schemes. It is found that the households not having any kind of debt burden are less likely to come into the grip of multi-dimensional poverty in the rural Kashmir. So, it is imperative on the part of the policy circle to focus on putting an adequate amount of purchasing power in the hands of rural people through appropriately designed work & employment opportunities such that households will not fall into debt trap. It is also found that the households having some sorts of exposure to poverty alleviation programmes are less likely to be in multi-dimensional poverty. Therefore, there is a need for holistic and sustainable anti-poverty programmes that aware and empowers rural people to come out of the grips of poverty. The proper implementation of the anti-poverty programmes together with quality education, training and awareness at the grass-root level, will certainly ensure the socio-economic empowerment of rural households.Item DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STUDY OF SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES(Central University of Punjab, 2018) KAUR, HARPREET; Mishra, Pabitra KumarAsia is a developing and fastest growing region of the world. In 1960s, Asia made a sound recovery known as ‘Asian Miracle’. Its sound recovery during global financial crisis has changed its traditional picture among the advanced regions like North America and Europe. It is highly unequal region in the world in terms of economic growth substantiated by the fact that developing Asia covers only its three sub-regions namely East Asia, South-East Asia, and South Asia out of five total regions. Therefore, the rising influence of Asia in global economy and among advanced nations along with rising inequality raises the question that what are the important factors driving rapid economic growth of Asian economies and if these factors lead to their growth differences? Is there any possibility of equitable growth of Asian economies in the long-run? If yes then what could be the contributing factors?. In regard with this research problem there are few studies available related to determinants of economic growth of Asia. In line with these research questions and research gap, this study works with the objectives to study the trend and pattern of economic growth of Asian economies; to investigate the level of income disparity across the Asian economies; to look for convergence possibility across Asian economies; to explore the drivers of economic growth of Asian economies; to suggest for appropriate policy options rapid and equitable growth of Asian economies. This study is an empirical in nature covering the time period from 1975 to 2015 and follows a macroeconomic approach. The twelve have been selected purposively out of total 50 Asian economies on the basis of income classification by World Bank, 2015. The methodology used in this study is specified as per objectives. For the first objective, time series plots has been prepared for variables of economic growth and trend pattern are observed for selected countries. For second objective, income disparity has been observed through maximum to minimum ratio, measure of dispersion, Gini index, and Theil index. For third objective, convergence possibililty across Asian economies is predicted through βconvergence and σ-convergence. For fourth objective, the inverted-U shaped Kuznets curve is estimated to investigate the relationship between growth of per capita GDP and income inequality of Asian economies. For objective fifth, the dynamic panel unit root test is conducted to see the stationary properties of the variables under consideration. Then the ARDL model is adopted to examine the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables possibly explaining the economic growth of Asian economies. The findings of this study imply that all Asian economies do not reveal an increasing trend of growth over the period. There is a wide disparity among the economic performance of countries from different income groups in respect of selected economic indicators. Income disparities between Asian countries are narrowing down over the period. There is an evidence of catch-up effect and convergence possibility across Asian economies. Economic growth influences income inequality only in case of Japan, South Korea, China, Iran, Thailand, Turkey, India, and Nepal while growth does not influence inequality in case of Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Philippines. The gross capital formation, share of working age population, trade openness, agriculture productivity, energy use, and gross primary school enrolment rate are positively related to economic growth while inflation, domestic credit to private sector, childhood mortality and government consumption expenditure are negatively related to economic growth. Therefore, this study suggests that policy makers should increase the gross capital formation, agricultural productivity, energy use, gross primary school enrolment rate, to efficiently utilize the rising share of working age population, to increase trade openness by encouraging exports and imports. On the other hand, inflation, government consumption expenditure, domestic credit to private sector should be controlled as these are significantly negatively affects economic growth.Item AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MARKET INTEGRATION OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES IN INDIA(Central University of Punjab, 2018) Ahmed, Mumtaz; Singla, NareshItem India-Pakistan Trade: Problems, Prospects and Challenges(Central University of Punjab, 2018) Manisha; Bhatia, Sandeep KaurThe economic cooperation has been challenging in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. Due to the political conflicts between India and Pakistan, development of the South Asia has been on hold. The present study is an attempt to see the historical and economic linkages between India and Pakistan and to overview the impact of the bilateral trade between India and Pakistan from the perspectives of both the countries. The findings of the study reveal that both the countries’ trade has been fluctuating during the study period of 1981- 2015. To investigate the competitiveness of India and Pakistan trade in the top twenty commodities, different trade indices like Revealed Comparative Advantage, Reveled Symmetric Comparative Advantage, Intra-Industry Trade, Trade Complementarity Index, Trade Potential Index, and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index has been calculated. The empirical results of the study show that in the top twenty commodities, India has the maximum competitive strength in Organic Chemicals, Inorganic chemicals, Precious metal compound, isotopes, Ships, boats and other floating structures, Impregnated, coated or Laminated Textile fabric and Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers while Pakistan has maximum strength in Ores slag and ash, Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet, Organic chemical, Products of animal origin, nes, Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc., Ships, boats and other floating structures and Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet. The results of the Intra-Industry trade between India and Pakistan reveal that Wool, animal hair, horsehair yarn and fabric thereof, Vegetables textile fibers nes; paper yarn, woven fabric, Residues wastes of food industry shift from inter industry trade to Intra Industry trade in case of top export product of India. While in case of top exports products of Pakistan, Intra-Industry trade shows that Products of animal origin, nes, Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet, Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc, Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes, Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder shift from inter industry trade to Intra Industry trade. The results of the study found that India has maximum export potential in Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc. while Pakistan has in Inorganic chemicals, Precious metal compound isotopes. Some of the commodities of Pakistan has found reduced tariffs, increased comparative advantage led to increase the Intra-Industry trade also i.e. Ores, slag and ash, Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their, Special woven fabrics, tufted textile fabric lace, and Headgear and parts thereof has, indicating that these items gaining their trade competitiveness. While in case of India, commodities, namely Other vegetables, textile fibers; paper yarn and woven and Wool, fine or coarse animal hair yarn. A field survey was carried out in the month of August to November, 2016 at Wagah-Border (Amritsar). The investigation establishes that the security clashes, roaming facilities, infrastructure constraints, corruption and harassment, informal trade and Hawala payment are the primary Non-Tariff Barries. Betel Leaves, Dry Fruits, Wheat, Synthetic Fibers and Liquor have been informally traded from India via third route (Dubai). There should be some effective policy made by the government of both the countries to resolve the Kashmir Issue, Sir Creek, Water Dispute and Siachen Glaciers. There should be proper warehouse facilities, timely checking, more cargo facilities and open the other two gates at the Attari-Wagah border. The Indian government should introduce modern techniques to fast-track the import procedures, especially at the time of excessive security checks. Ministry of Communication should make some policy and agreement to reduce the telecommunication gap between the countries. Corruption and harassment at the land customs station should be checked at a high level. Security clashes at the border and political statement by India should be avoided for the smooth bilateral trade. For deeper and stronger trade linkages, it is important that the bilateral visa regime should be liberalized without compromising on security, and there is free flow of investments between the two countries. A joint working group includes officials from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, and the Central Bank should discuss policy measures that may incentivize the formalization of the current informal inflows from India to Pakistan in such a way that does not restrict the economic growth of formal trade between the countries. The Ministry of Finance of India should report, annual revenue losses to the informal trade.Item Remittances, Household Expenditure and Investment in Rural India: Evidence from NSS data(Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, 2015) Parida, J.K.; Mohanty, Sanjay K.; Raman, K. RaviThe paper attempts to study the migration trends and the factors driving it in India and also to understand and compare the marginal spending behavior of three groups of households in India - those not receiving remittances, receiving internal remittances and receiving international remittances - with an emphasis on its impact on investment in human capital defined as education and health. The analysis, based on a nation-wide sample survey, reveals that migration, besides playing a major role in poverty reduction, also has an important bearing on marginal spending behavior much in keeping with Engels Law and also that the amount set aside towards human capital formation is significant, which has wider policy impliItem Growth and Prospects of Non-Farm Employment in India: Reflections from NSS Data(National Sample Survey Office - Industrial Statistics Wing, 2015) Parida, J.K.This paper attempts to explore the recent trends of non-farm employment in India and to identify the employment generating sectors that would absorb the rapidly growing labour force using various rounds of NSS unit level data. Major findings of this study suggest that a structural change in employment has been taking place since 2004-05, that could be rightly named as a Lewisan transition. Construction, services and labour intensive manufacturing sectors together continued to absorb the workers who left agriculture during the post 2004-05 periods. Given the demographic scenario and huge participation in education (particularly secondary and above level), about 11 million skilled, 9 million low-skilled and 43 million unskilled job seekers are expected to join the labour force by 2019-20. Thus, along with the skill development initiatives the government has to give top priority for generating employment in manufacturing and service sectorsItem Growth and Performance of Agriculture Sector in India(Publishing India, 2015) Singla, Naresh; Kaur,MamandeepThe growth of agriculture and allied sectors is critical for the Indian economy as about 49 percent of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. During the last decade and so, the agriculture sector has undergone profound changes resulting in sharp deceleration in its growth. The study has attempted to analyze growth and performance of the agriculture sector in India since 1980-81 and tries to comprehend some of the factors responsible for the deceleration in growth. The study has shown that agriculture sector has been able to show tremendous improvement in expansion of area and production of food grain and non-food grain crops. However, there are so many underlying factors responsible for slowdown of the agricultural growth. Some of the factors identified include: Increase in area under non-agriculture uses, excessive dependence on rain fed farming, increase in number of agricultural labourers, reducing size of the operation holdings, over use of agri-inputs, inequity in the distribution of agriculture credit along with sharp deceleration in public gross capital formation in agriculture etc. The study pointed in order to achieve higher growth rate, there is a need to enhance the gross capital formation in agriculture sector particularly on irrigation so that more area can be brought under assured irrigation. Bringing equity in distribution of agricultural credit coupled with judicious and need-based agricultural inputs are some of the other recommendations drawn based upon the study.