Economic Studies - Research Publications

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://kr.cup.edu.in/handle/32116/141

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    An Analysis of Major Determinants of Food Inflation in India
    (Indian Society for Education and Environment, 2014) Ahmed, Mumtaz; Singla, Naresh
    The study has exclusively analyzed the major determinants of food inflation in India by using the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2013. Using Johansen’s cointegration technique, it was shown that in long run, all major determinants of food inflation such as money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, crude oil and rainfall except world food prices affect food inflation significantly. The Error Correction Model was also used to comprehend the short run behavior of food inflation and its determinants. The error correction term turned out to be significant statistically which further confirmed the long run causality as well as the speed of convergence towards long run equilibrium. In short-run, only world food and crude oil prices affect the food inflation.
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    Cointegration, Causality and Impulse Response Analysis in Major Apple Markets of India
    (Agricultural Economics Reseach Assosiation, 2014) Beag, Fayaz Ahmad; Singla, Naresh
    The study has investigated market integration across five major wholesale apple markets, viz. Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Delhi, Hyderabad and Kolkata, of the country by adopting Johansen’s multivariate cointegration approach. The study has confirmed the presence of cointegration, implying the long-run price association among the markets. To get the additional evidence as to whether and in which direction price transmission is occurring between the market pairs, Granger causality test has been used, which has confirmed Delhi to be the price-determining market. Hyderabad has been found comparatively more efficient as it has depicted most bidirectional causal relations with other markets. The market pairs: Ahmedabad — Kolkata and Bengaluru — Kolkata have not shown any causal relation between them. The impulse response functions were also conducted which have confirmed the results of cointegration and Granger causality, but the magnitude of price transmission has been found relatively low in some market pairs that are spatially integrated. The major implication of the study is for the designing of a network of agricultural wholesale markets across the country at almost equal distance from each other to enhance the market integration and better price transmission among them.
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    Trends , Patterns and Determinants of Indian Current Account Deficit
    (Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2016) Fayaz, Mohd; Bhatia, Sandeep Kaur
    India’s current account experience deteriorated due to its large dependence on imports and un-competitiveness of exports. The relation between external and internal balances, with deficit in specific, deserves significant attention. Thus to understand the factors influencing current account is important for better designing the policies aiming at sustainable Current Account Deficit (CAD). In this direction, the present study is an endeavour to enrich the existing literature on the trends, patterns and determinants of current account deficit in India since 1996. The study adopts Johansen Cointegration approach to identify long-run relationship and uses Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to identify short-run relationship. The results of Johansen Cointegration test indicates the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between the current account and the variables of interest, implying that India’s current account is influenced by these factors. On the basis of the empirical results, study concluded that continuously increasing Net Foreign Assets (NFAs) will lead to the betterment of the current account while, increase in imports encompassing exchange rate deterioration will keep on mounting pressure on CAD of India.
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    Empirical Evidence on Money-Price Relationship in India: Cointegration and Causality Approach
    (Serial Publications Pvt.Ltd., 2017) Mishra, P. K.; Verma, J.K.
    In recent years, the study of the causal relationship between money supply and price level has attracted the attention of economists, researchers, and policy makers. This study shall be significant in deciding whether price stability is the primary objective of monetary policy in India. Using the sample data on consumer price index and broad money supply for the period 1950-51 to 2015-16, this study provides the evidence of long-run equilibrium relationship between money and general price level. It further suggests the existence of unidirectional causality running between money supply to general price level in the long-run. And, also confirms the presence of bidirectional causal relationship between money and price in the short-run. But it is very interesting. The causality from money supply to price is positive whereas in the reverse direction it is negative. Thus, any increase in money supply would raise the rate of inflation and hence, price stability should be considered as the primary objective of monetary policy in India. On the contrary, rising inflation can be controlled through curtailed money supply implementation of appropriate monetary policy in the country.
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    Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Odisha, India,
    (Serial Publications Pvt.Ltd., 2016) Rout, Himanshu B.; Mishra, P. K.; Pradhan, B.B.
    In view of the importance of tourism as an instrument for economic growth and employment generation, this paper is an effort to examine the nexus between tourism and economic growth in Odisha during 1990-91 and 2013-14; specifically the aim is to examine the tourism-led growth hypothesis at the state level. The study provides the empirical evidence of the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism and economic growth in the State. Precisely, it provides the evidence of stable, significant and positive response of tourism to economic growth. This finding is important from policy perspective. The State government is required to priority to the promotion of tourism so as to lead a stable and inclusive growth of Odisha.